Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
