A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
